The Future of Work
Artificial intelligence is a double-edged sword. On the one hand it is seen as a boon that will propel us, Jetson-like, into a century of self-driving cars, drones and perpetual leisure; but it is also viewed as a bane that will deprive most of us of a job and, consequently, an income. History suggests that the truth is somewhere in-between, that AI will create opportunities even as it displaces jobs; but only if there is a fundamental restructuring of the way people go about their business.
The world has been divided into nation-states since the Treaty of Westphalia. In recent years it has become somewhat axiomatic to assert that those nation-states and the borders that divide them have become almost irrelevant. In the words of Parag Khanna, "The 21st century will not be dominated by America or China, Brazil or India, but by the city. In an age that appears increasingly unmanageable, cities rather than states are becoming the islands of governance from which the future world order will be built. This new world is not - and will not be - one global village so much as a network of different ones."
Khanna suggests that in a world dominated by cities, "Neither 19th century balance of power politics nor 20th century power blocs are useful in understanding this new world. Instead, we have to look back nearly a thousand years, to the medieval age in which cities such as Cairo and Hangzhou were centers of global gravity, expanding their influence confidently outward in a borderless world." A useful model is the Hanseatic League, a network of German merchants and towns organized to protect their trading interests. Central to the functioning of the Hanseatic League was the merchant guild system, which enforced quality control and set standards for entry through an apprenticeship system, The center of gravity for the Hanseatic League was the port cities along the Baltic Sea. It was a trading network mediated by water.
One function of the city is to bring together like-minded individuals in a collaborative setting, a process Richard Florida has called "creativity clustering." He takes issue with the "world is flat" school, which argues that connectivity has made it possible to work from anywhere. It may, in fact, be possible to work anywhere there is an internet connection, but Florida argues that creative people tend to converge in one place so that they can feed off each other intellectually. It is this sort of convergence that creates nodes of innovation such as Silicon Valley. It is based on the idea that the whole is greater than the sum of its parts and that when highly creative individuals converge, collaborate and, yes, compete, creativity reaches critical mass.
But to facilitate this collaboration, two forms of infrastructure must be in place: electronic and physical. Electronic connectivity makes possible what Manuel Castells calls "the network society," a society in which "the key social structures and activities are organized around electronically processed information networks," The quality of that electronic connectivity is key to an understanding of social organization. As Castells notes, a Wall Street trader in Manhattan may have more in common with his counterpart in London than with a family in the South Bronx a few miles away. These electronic networks create the medium for collaboration, while physical infrastructure creates the medium for community. And it is that community that is critical to an understanding of how social organization and work may develop as the twenty-first century continues.
In the Pre-Industrial Society, agriculture dominated human activities. The family farm was the organizing principle, and self-sufficiency was the dominant motif. The Industrial Revolution introduced the idea of specialization, the idea that one could make a living from a discrete activity that was only part of a greater whole. Ironically, the network society brings back elements of both self-sufficiency and specialization. For example, Minneapolis and St. Paul are known for grain production. Companies like General Mills depend on physical infrastructure to get their products to market. If that physical infrastructure were to be enhanced by, for example, a high speed rail network linking Minnesota to Chicago, a longtime center for commodities, the result would be an area specializing in food production and marketing. The cities of the Northeast, which are already important financial and trading centers, could enhance that role with a more efficient high speed transportation system. In such a model cities become nodes of specialized creativity, attracting individuals with appropriate backgrounds and talents.
At the same time, self-sufficiency is likely to make a resurgence because manufacturing is likely to become a cottage industry rather than one involving mass production. Advances in 3D printing will make possible the replication of items such as auto parts at home, and even larger ticket items such as refrigerators and cars could easily be made at satellite production facilities located in every city. In such a model, the consumer would not buy a car; he or she would buy the license to produce a car and then customize it. (It would be the golden age of the intellectual property attorney, since the "value added" would be the licensing of the design to the consumer.) Even food production is becoming electronic. Experimental food synthesizers are being tested, and no-kill beef and turkey may be on the world's tables in the near future. (In such an environment, grown or raised food might become a delicacy. Consumers may become nostalgic for "real" food the way some audio purists today are nostalgic for vinyl records.)
Artificial intelligence is already usurping even skilled "white collar" jobs. It has become almost axiomatic to say that any job involving repetition or following the same pattern over and over is likely to be automated. Truck drivers may be supplanted by self-driving vehicles, delivery people will be put out of work by drones and customer service representatives could be displaced by robotics as natural language increasingly becomes the lingua franca of software. The media are vulnerable as well. Already The Associated Press is using artificial intelligence to write some business and sports stories. It's only a matter of time until more sophisticated software will tackle more complex stories.
Some sectors seem likely to need a "deep bench" in the near future. Software developers, information technology specialists and others in the field may be exempt to a certain extent from the coming dislocations, although artificial intelligence can already develop certain algorithms on their own. Professions that require empathy and offer mentoring are also unlikely to dwindle in size. For example:
Teaching: Because mentoring is essential to the healthy development of the child, teaching is likely to be a thriving profession, although artificial intelligence can play key supportive roles. But schools, like other institutions, are likely to change. The one-size-fits-all September-to-June mass production model will likely give way to more diverse and flexible instructional modalities. At the elementary level, neighborhood schools, networked together and built in sync with transportation patterns, are likely to proliferate. At all levels schools are likely to be modular and operate at different times of the year to give parents more choice. Certain core skills will be taught at all levels, but instruction will be tailored to the individual; and the school experience is likely to include apprenticeships, early internships and mentoring.
Clergy: The organizational model for churches has been changing for years. Where at one time the Sunday worship service was the centerpiece of church membership and the pastor served multiple roles (featured speaker, CEO and counselor), many of the most successful churches today are large full-service organizations that are social hubs during the week and delegate duties such as counseling out to prayer teams and the like.
Counseling: and Behavioral Specialists: In a network society, most social interactions are mediated by electronics. People with hundreds of Facebook friends live in neighborhoods of strangers. While families will continue to provide a foundation for living, there will be a strong market for professional support services. These professionals will function not as therapists but as guides and mentors. And in law enforcement, the rise of predictive policing will create new opportunities in the behavioral sciences.
Health Care: While robotics will play an increasing role in surgery, x-ray diagnostics and primary care, the demand for medical professionals should continue to be strong. Proposals to automate routine services such as blood drawing have met with resistance, and caregivers are likely to be much in demand going forward.
While demand in these and other realms may continue to be strong, the organizational structures that have encompassed most jobs are undergoing radical transformations. As Josh Bersin writes in Forbes, "... I'd venture to say we are reaching a time when jobs, as we know them, are going away." In his words, "... the idea of a 'job,' with all its protected artifacts like job title, level, and job description, is starting to go away. What is its replacement? People being hired to 'do work,' get a project done, lead a team, and be ready to move on as the business needs change." That means those in the labor market are going to have to be nimble, willing to learn and adaptable. Personal branding, networking and a broad educational background will be the prerequisites for success, taking the place of company loyalty and specialization. Uber is one of the best examples of this model. Drivers work when they want, are paid by the trip and receive no benefits. That same model can be applied to virtually any profession. In journalism, for example, reporters and writers might work for a number of different publications and get paid by the post. Globalization can actually enhance opportunities in this model as long as labor flows are as unrestricted as capital flows. Sites such as Jobbatical have made possible temporary postings around the world.
In such an environment life coaches and transition specialists could be very much in demand because change will be a constant and it will be critical for the individual to know how to negotiate the system. Mentors, guides and "life docents" will be needed to help project-seekers manage a complex system of networking and training. The need for such experts will not be limited to career mentoring. As algorithms become more sophisticated, there will be a need for people who understand those systems and can optimize them according to changing needs. Systems analysis could become an in-demand profession.
Whether it's described as the age of connectivity or the network society, the economy of the twenty-first century is undergoing a radical transformation from its industrial predecessor. Consider how automobiles are produced. In the industrial model, parts were brought in by truck or railroad and then assembled at large-scale manufacturing plants by workers who performed specialized tasks over and over. It is reductive manufacturing, in which portions of raw materials are used to make the components. The advent of 3D printing has eliminated the need for large-scale manufacturing plants by allowing the automobile to be fabricated through an additive process that can be accomplished through automation at a small satellite plant. The "value added" is largely in the design of the automobile.
The automobile is just an example, of course. Some have predicted that ride-hailing services and self-driving cars will make automobile ownership obsolete. The point is that the model of production is changing. The new model consists of large urban areas that function as creativity clusters producing goods and services that are then marketed and distributed electronically and fabricated, when needed, either at home or at small satellite plants. In other words, it's a "new Hanseatic League" connected by integrated circuits rather than water. It is the merchant model rather than the industrial model., mediated by global electronic networks rather than trading routes.
That's not to say that large-scale production is completely outmoded. As commercial space ventures become more and more common, it remains to be seen which forms of production are the most efficient in, say, autonomous satellite repair, asteroid mining or water extraction on the Moon or Mars. But it's safe to say that these will be growth industries in the decades to come.
According to Margrit Schulte Beerbuhl's description, "The Hanseatic League was a late -medieval network of economically largely independent long-distance trade merchants which was based on trust, reputation and reciprocal relations. The informal cooperation among its members kept transactional, informational and organizational costs low, allowing the Hanse merchants to make good profits from the long-distance trade between the Baltic and the North Seas." in the twenty-first century, trust, reputation and reciprocal relations are again vital as people pursue projects and careers rather than just jobs. Personal branding will be the key to success.
In such a world a liberal arts education may be vital. After all, how valuable is specialized training when a skill is likely to become outmoded very quickly? For example, at one time in history stained glass production was a lucrative pursuit. Those who were trained only in that field would have been eventually bypassed by history. Education prepares the individual for what former Dickinson College President Bill Durden calls "a world that does not yet exist." That is a pretty apt metaphor for the twenty-first century.
The port cities of the Hanseatic League may stand, to paraphrase former President Ronald Reagan, as shining cities on a hill for the present century. The thriving commercial ports in the Middle Ages created patrons who spurred the Renaissance. It would be the best of all possible worlds if the sea changes in the economy led not only to new prosperity but also to new levels of creativity and human understanding.
Jerry Edling is an editor for CBS Radio and former Editor in Chief of Public Diplomacy Magazine. He has been nominated for three Emmy Awards and three Writers Guild Awards and has won two Golden Mike Awards and three Associated Press Awards. He spoke at "World Future 2015," the annual conference of the World Future Society, the International Space Development Conference (2014) and the Berlin International Freedom of Expression Forum (2012).
The world has been divided into nation-states since the Treaty of Westphalia. In recent years it has become somewhat axiomatic to assert that those nation-states and the borders that divide them have become almost irrelevant. In the words of Parag Khanna, "The 21st century will not be dominated by America or China, Brazil or India, but by the city. In an age that appears increasingly unmanageable, cities rather than states are becoming the islands of governance from which the future world order will be built. This new world is not - and will not be - one global village so much as a network of different ones."
Khanna suggests that in a world dominated by cities, "Neither 19th century balance of power politics nor 20th century power blocs are useful in understanding this new world. Instead, we have to look back nearly a thousand years, to the medieval age in which cities such as Cairo and Hangzhou were centers of global gravity, expanding their influence confidently outward in a borderless world." A useful model is the Hanseatic League, a network of German merchants and towns organized to protect their trading interests. Central to the functioning of the Hanseatic League was the merchant guild system, which enforced quality control and set standards for entry through an apprenticeship system, The center of gravity for the Hanseatic League was the port cities along the Baltic Sea. It was a trading network mediated by water.
One function of the city is to bring together like-minded individuals in a collaborative setting, a process Richard Florida has called "creativity clustering." He takes issue with the "world is flat" school, which argues that connectivity has made it possible to work from anywhere. It may, in fact, be possible to work anywhere there is an internet connection, but Florida argues that creative people tend to converge in one place so that they can feed off each other intellectually. It is this sort of convergence that creates nodes of innovation such as Silicon Valley. It is based on the idea that the whole is greater than the sum of its parts and that when highly creative individuals converge, collaborate and, yes, compete, creativity reaches critical mass.
But to facilitate this collaboration, two forms of infrastructure must be in place: electronic and physical. Electronic connectivity makes possible what Manuel Castells calls "the network society," a society in which "the key social structures and activities are organized around electronically processed information networks," The quality of that electronic connectivity is key to an understanding of social organization. As Castells notes, a Wall Street trader in Manhattan may have more in common with his counterpart in London than with a family in the South Bronx a few miles away. These electronic networks create the medium for collaboration, while physical infrastructure creates the medium for community. And it is that community that is critical to an understanding of how social organization and work may develop as the twenty-first century continues.
In the Pre-Industrial Society, agriculture dominated human activities. The family farm was the organizing principle, and self-sufficiency was the dominant motif. The Industrial Revolution introduced the idea of specialization, the idea that one could make a living from a discrete activity that was only part of a greater whole. Ironically, the network society brings back elements of both self-sufficiency and specialization. For example, Minneapolis and St. Paul are known for grain production. Companies like General Mills depend on physical infrastructure to get their products to market. If that physical infrastructure were to be enhanced by, for example, a high speed rail network linking Minnesota to Chicago, a longtime center for commodities, the result would be an area specializing in food production and marketing. The cities of the Northeast, which are already important financial and trading centers, could enhance that role with a more efficient high speed transportation system. In such a model cities become nodes of specialized creativity, attracting individuals with appropriate backgrounds and talents.
At the same time, self-sufficiency is likely to make a resurgence because manufacturing is likely to become a cottage industry rather than one involving mass production. Advances in 3D printing will make possible the replication of items such as auto parts at home, and even larger ticket items such as refrigerators and cars could easily be made at satellite production facilities located in every city. In such a model, the consumer would not buy a car; he or she would buy the license to produce a car and then customize it. (It would be the golden age of the intellectual property attorney, since the "value added" would be the licensing of the design to the consumer.) Even food production is becoming electronic. Experimental food synthesizers are being tested, and no-kill beef and turkey may be on the world's tables in the near future. (In such an environment, grown or raised food might become a delicacy. Consumers may become nostalgic for "real" food the way some audio purists today are nostalgic for vinyl records.)
Artificial intelligence is already usurping even skilled "white collar" jobs. It has become almost axiomatic to say that any job involving repetition or following the same pattern over and over is likely to be automated. Truck drivers may be supplanted by self-driving vehicles, delivery people will be put out of work by drones and customer service representatives could be displaced by robotics as natural language increasingly becomes the lingua franca of software. The media are vulnerable as well. Already The Associated Press is using artificial intelligence to write some business and sports stories. It's only a matter of time until more sophisticated software will tackle more complex stories.
Some sectors seem likely to need a "deep bench" in the near future. Software developers, information technology specialists and others in the field may be exempt to a certain extent from the coming dislocations, although artificial intelligence can already develop certain algorithms on their own. Professions that require empathy and offer mentoring are also unlikely to dwindle in size. For example:
Teaching: Because mentoring is essential to the healthy development of the child, teaching is likely to be a thriving profession, although artificial intelligence can play key supportive roles. But schools, like other institutions, are likely to change. The one-size-fits-all September-to-June mass production model will likely give way to more diverse and flexible instructional modalities. At the elementary level, neighborhood schools, networked together and built in sync with transportation patterns, are likely to proliferate. At all levels schools are likely to be modular and operate at different times of the year to give parents more choice. Certain core skills will be taught at all levels, but instruction will be tailored to the individual; and the school experience is likely to include apprenticeships, early internships and mentoring.
Clergy: The organizational model for churches has been changing for years. Where at one time the Sunday worship service was the centerpiece of church membership and the pastor served multiple roles (featured speaker, CEO and counselor), many of the most successful churches today are large full-service organizations that are social hubs during the week and delegate duties such as counseling out to prayer teams and the like.
Counseling: and Behavioral Specialists: In a network society, most social interactions are mediated by electronics. People with hundreds of Facebook friends live in neighborhoods of strangers. While families will continue to provide a foundation for living, there will be a strong market for professional support services. These professionals will function not as therapists but as guides and mentors. And in law enforcement, the rise of predictive policing will create new opportunities in the behavioral sciences.
Health Care: While robotics will play an increasing role in surgery, x-ray diagnostics and primary care, the demand for medical professionals should continue to be strong. Proposals to automate routine services such as blood drawing have met with resistance, and caregivers are likely to be much in demand going forward.
While demand in these and other realms may continue to be strong, the organizational structures that have encompassed most jobs are undergoing radical transformations. As Josh Bersin writes in Forbes, "... I'd venture to say we are reaching a time when jobs, as we know them, are going away." In his words, "... the idea of a 'job,' with all its protected artifacts like job title, level, and job description, is starting to go away. What is its replacement? People being hired to 'do work,' get a project done, lead a team, and be ready to move on as the business needs change." That means those in the labor market are going to have to be nimble, willing to learn and adaptable. Personal branding, networking and a broad educational background will be the prerequisites for success, taking the place of company loyalty and specialization. Uber is one of the best examples of this model. Drivers work when they want, are paid by the trip and receive no benefits. That same model can be applied to virtually any profession. In journalism, for example, reporters and writers might work for a number of different publications and get paid by the post. Globalization can actually enhance opportunities in this model as long as labor flows are as unrestricted as capital flows. Sites such as Jobbatical have made possible temporary postings around the world.
In such an environment life coaches and transition specialists could be very much in demand because change will be a constant and it will be critical for the individual to know how to negotiate the system. Mentors, guides and "life docents" will be needed to help project-seekers manage a complex system of networking and training. The need for such experts will not be limited to career mentoring. As algorithms become more sophisticated, there will be a need for people who understand those systems and can optimize them according to changing needs. Systems analysis could become an in-demand profession.
Whether it's described as the age of connectivity or the network society, the economy of the twenty-first century is undergoing a radical transformation from its industrial predecessor. Consider how automobiles are produced. In the industrial model, parts were brought in by truck or railroad and then assembled at large-scale manufacturing plants by workers who performed specialized tasks over and over. It is reductive manufacturing, in which portions of raw materials are used to make the components. The advent of 3D printing has eliminated the need for large-scale manufacturing plants by allowing the automobile to be fabricated through an additive process that can be accomplished through automation at a small satellite plant. The "value added" is largely in the design of the automobile.
The automobile is just an example, of course. Some have predicted that ride-hailing services and self-driving cars will make automobile ownership obsolete. The point is that the model of production is changing. The new model consists of large urban areas that function as creativity clusters producing goods and services that are then marketed and distributed electronically and fabricated, when needed, either at home or at small satellite plants. In other words, it's a "new Hanseatic League" connected by integrated circuits rather than water. It is the merchant model rather than the industrial model., mediated by global electronic networks rather than trading routes.
That's not to say that large-scale production is completely outmoded. As commercial space ventures become more and more common, it remains to be seen which forms of production are the most efficient in, say, autonomous satellite repair, asteroid mining or water extraction on the Moon or Mars. But it's safe to say that these will be growth industries in the decades to come.
According to Margrit Schulte Beerbuhl's description, "The Hanseatic League was a late -medieval network of economically largely independent long-distance trade merchants which was based on trust, reputation and reciprocal relations. The informal cooperation among its members kept transactional, informational and organizational costs low, allowing the Hanse merchants to make good profits from the long-distance trade between the Baltic and the North Seas." in the twenty-first century, trust, reputation and reciprocal relations are again vital as people pursue projects and careers rather than just jobs. Personal branding will be the key to success.
In such a world a liberal arts education may be vital. After all, how valuable is specialized training when a skill is likely to become outmoded very quickly? For example, at one time in history stained glass production was a lucrative pursuit. Those who were trained only in that field would have been eventually bypassed by history. Education prepares the individual for what former Dickinson College President Bill Durden calls "a world that does not yet exist." That is a pretty apt metaphor for the twenty-first century.
The port cities of the Hanseatic League may stand, to paraphrase former President Ronald Reagan, as shining cities on a hill for the present century. The thriving commercial ports in the Middle Ages created patrons who spurred the Renaissance. It would be the best of all possible worlds if the sea changes in the economy led not only to new prosperity but also to new levels of creativity and human understanding.
Jerry Edling is an editor for CBS Radio and former Editor in Chief of Public Diplomacy Magazine. He has been nominated for three Emmy Awards and three Writers Guild Awards and has won two Golden Mike Awards and three Associated Press Awards. He spoke at "World Future 2015," the annual conference of the World Future Society, the International Space Development Conference (2014) and the Berlin International Freedom of Expression Forum (2012).
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